Will the Apple Vision Pro survive 2025?
Let's dig into the numbers from the past year and see what we can learn as product folks from Apple's rocky journey.
Apple’s track record for revolutionizing tech is legendary. But even the biggest names in the game don’t always stick the landing.
With the Vision Pro, Apple took a bold step into AR/VR with sky-high expectations. But the past year has shown the road hasn’t been entirely smooth.
It’s not necessarily an Apple III level flop, but it’s a reminder that even the most innovative companies face challenges in the market.
For product builders, it’s a chance to reflect: setbacks are inevitable, but the key is turning them into opportunities to learn and grow.
By the Numbers
When Apple unveiled the Vision Pro, it was clear they weren’t aiming for the mass-market VR crowd.
Instead, they claimed to be a premium player in AR/VR, with a $3,500 price tag.
So, how does the data since launch stack up to the hype?
Sales Performance
2024 Revenue: $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion.
Total 2024 Sales: Estimated between 370,000 and 450,000 units.
Q3 Growth: 190,000 units sold in Q3 2024, a 211% increase from Q1.
Market Share / Content Ecosystem
App Ecosystem: By late 2024, the visionOS App Store offered roughly 2,500 native apps.
Revenue Share: Vision Pro contributed 9% of AR/VR market revenue in Q3 2024.
Market Position: Apple Vision Pro captured 5% of the global VR/MR headset market share in 2024, ranking as the third-largest player.
International Performance
Global Expansion: Launched in China, Japan, and Singapore in June 2024, followed by Germany, France, Australia, the UK, and Canada in July.
International Sales: Accounted for nearly 90% of Apple’s Vision Pro shipments in the second half of 2024.
Competitive Landscape: AR glasses outsold Vision Pro in China, with 284,000 units sold in 2024.
The Fails
Price Point
At $3,500, the Vision Pro's premium pricing significantly limits its potential audience.
Competing products like Meta's Quest 3, priced around $500, have achieved much wider adoption.
This stark price difference highlights affordability as a key factor in mass market penetration for VR/AR devices.
Comfort Challenges
Extended use of the Vision Pro (beyond 1-2 hours) can lead to discomfort based on the feedback I saw, with many users citing the headset's weight and the tethered battery pack as primary culprits.
Users have also hated the 2-2.5-hour battery life because users feel it limits immersive experiences and requires frequent recharges.
While the Vision Pro boasts a sleek design, it doesn’t comfortably fit all users. Glasses wearers and those needing head strap adjustments often struggle to achieve a secure and ergonomic fit.
Technical Hiccups
Interface glitches, eye-tracking inconsistencies, and occasional overheating have also been common complaints, highlighting areas where Apple is still refining the Vision Pro’s hardware and software.
These technical challenges, combined with a slower-than-expected content rollout (there will be only about 2,500 native apps in the VisionOS App Store by late 2024), have affected the platform's early credibility.
While partnerships with providers like Disney+ are promising, the lack of broader content support (e.g., Netflix) further limits the headset’s appeal and raises questions about its premium price point.
Lessons for Product People
Validate Early and Stay Adaptable
Even with a strong brand like Apple, success isn’t guaranteed.
Use prototypes, pilots, and user feedback to confirm your product solves real customer problems before committing a ton of time and/or money.
Then iterate - listening to users and pivoting when needed can turn early missteps into long-term wins.
Balance Ambition with Accessibility
Innovation is powerful, but it must meet customers where they are.
The Vision Pro’s steep price and usability hurdles reveal the danger of overengineering for a niche audience while overlooking broader market needs.
A successful product blends groundbreaking features with practical affordability, delivering value people can embrace without hesitation.
Build an Ecosystem
Sometimes - especially on a global scale - a great product isn’t enough on its own.
Vision Pro’s struggles show the importance of launching with plenty of apps, tools, and partnerships.
Building an ecosystem makes your product more valuable and easier for users to adopt right away.
Final Thoughts
Apple’s Vision Pro story so far reminds us that even the most admired companies can stumble with a new product category.
Sometimes, the market is just not ready, or the value proposition is not polished enough to convert mainstream buyers.
Rather than seeing this as a failure, product teams can view it as an example of how vital it is to stay agile, validate continuously, and align pricing and features with actual user needs.
When we embrace those lessons, even “flops” can become stepping stones to transformative breakthroughs.
Until next week,
Mike @
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